Market Engineering 代写 Introduction Of Energy

Market Engineering 代写 Introduction Of Energy

2.1 Thermal Industry Trends

From 1991 to 1997, demand trends were driven by Asian countries towards steam plants (coal fired). In the rest of the world, and in particular in industrialized nations, the demand for thermal power plants was at a stagnation point that began in the 1980s.

From 1998 to 2001, there was a significant turnaround due to a strong surge in demand in the USA for gas turbines and combined cycle plants, driving orders above those for steam turbines. At the same time, the Asian market slowed down significantly.

Despite constantly increasing prices of primary energy sources, namely oil and natural gas, orders for thermoelectric power generation machinery have continued to grow. In fact, global orders for gas and steam turbines rose twofold in 2007, from 80 GW to 165 GW. There was an even sharper rise in steam turbine orders, which accounted for 70% of all turbine orders in 2007. In the medium to long term, high oil and natural gas prices are expected to continue growing, thereby encouraging the use of other cheap fossil fuels, including coal. Despite growing global interest in environmental issues, the World Energy Council confirmed the use of fossil fuels in power generation until at least 2030. However, the demand for thermo-electric power plant components fell by 11% in 2008. Furthermore, the demand for natural gas-fired plants fell to 58 GW in the first nine months of the year. Due to the slowdown in Asian economies, with respect to China and India in particular, orders for conventional coal-fired plants decreased by 15% as well.

Projections for energy usage predict a sound future for gas turbine plants. This depends on the use of fewer resources, and the reduction of harmful emissions through more efficient and clean power generation facilities. Future gas turbines will need to reach 50% efficiency in single cycle, and over 65% in combined cycle. There will be a trend towards Zero Emission Plants (ZEP), which release negligible emissions, such as CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Even higher efficiencies will be achieved by combining gas turbines with fuels cells, though, only after fuel cells have reached suitable economies of scale, cost, and reliability.

2.2 Suppliers

Within the thermal power industry, the relationship between contractors and their suppliers is usually on a long-term basis. This is due to the fact that power plant infrastructure has a long operating life, is immovable, and requires long-term planning for fuel supply and asset lifecycle management.

The most pertinent trend in this sector is that of tighter environmental standards, particularly in reference to tightening greenhouse gas regulations. This trend has lead to stricter supplier selection criteria for contractors.

The thermal power industry has undergone a restructuring that has digressed from the traditional, vertically integrated supplier. Contractors now outsource more, also exploiting economies of scale in utility operations. In this sense, globalization is vital because the power generation market now seeks out the highest bidder worldwide, rather than focusing solely on domestic suppliers. In some situations, however, contractors are forced to use local suppliers due to the presence of offset agreements.

Demand for power is growing and customers require better quality and reliability in products/services. Contractors must ensure that their suppliers are able to increase generation on short notice to meet fluctuating demand. Customers may even ask to take part in supplier selection for processes that involve key components.

2.3 Customers

The industry is characterized by consolidated players and customers who require a high level of commitment and expertise. Companies usually maintain long-term relationships with all their customers, who tend to be big in size and have high bargaining power due to the high level of investment that a new power plant requires.

In the construction, or upgrading, of new power plants, most contract risks are represented by penalties for delays, contractor claims, and/or internal/external cost increases. There are also issues relating to customer approval, quality, plant availability during the warranty period, and safety. More specifically, according to: the value of the contract; the type of customer; and the importing country, companies try to take all the necessary precautions to limit risk in terms of both payment and financial instruments used. In the most complicated cases, insurance coverage is utilized, or financial assistance is provided to the customer.

Most of the companies offer their customers a comprehensive portfolio of integrated solutions and services. The concept of quality, as the combined product of all business activities, from sales to service, stresses that every transition brings the risk of potentially loosing that quality. The result is that the quality perceived by the customer is not the same as the quality expected by corporate management.

3.0 Fuel Cells

3.1 Industry Trends

Although some data may not be fully comparable due to differing organizations responding year to year, looking at the chart referring to year 2003 – 2006, growth in the industry can be seen over the four year period. The data supplied shows the following trends:

Sales have increased 14% – from $339 million in 2003 to $387 million in 2006

R&D expenditures have grown 26% – from $659 million in 2003 to $829 million in 2006

Employment in the industry has risen 36% from 6,350 in 2003 to 8,647 in 2006

Figure 4. Growth Chart (2003 – 2006)

Prominent locations for fuel cell related manufacturing, and/or R&D activity, are as illustrated by the following diagrams. This data shows where fuel cell technology has been established and is continuing to develop through R&D.

Figure 5. R&D expenses ($ millions) and Employees by Country

Standards for the safety of stationary power application were the first to be developed in the fuel cell industry. Today this standards have been in use for over a decade and, with installations now in the thousands worldwide, have shown themselves to be effective.

The standards system for fuel cells does, however, remain a mix of national, regional and international standards, some of which overlap and duplicate others. This tends to create much of the uncertainty when selecting standards against which a design should be based. While the long-term goal of the industry is to develop a more streamlined standards system based on a single set of international norms, this will likely take some time to achieve.

Suppliers

The main supply issue, specific to critical core components, is the lack of appropriate suppliers for stack components. For instance, long-term supply contracts are more likely since suppliers of membranes are limited and hard to find, in addition to strict selection criteria with respect to supplier reliability.

Customers

The key customers vary significantly among manufacturers. Manufacturers are interested in providing prime power, backup power, motive power, combined heat and power, and renewable power to a variety of customers including utilities, industrial, telecommunication, government, mixed commercial, business, and consumer. Fuel cells manufacturers continue to find an ever-expanding market in which fuel cells can be a clean and effective alternative to commonly used technologies.

However, due to the lack of robustness in comparison to traditional technologies and high capital and operating costs, the fuel cell market is presently in the demonstration and product validation stage, where focus is on product development, as well as customer feedback in order to understand their requirements and enhance product solutions.